A survey of 1516 Victorians by independent polling outfit RedBridge has the coalition pulling ahead of Labor 51 to 49 on a two-party preferred (TPP) basis.
The poll, published by the Herald Sun, was conducted between September 26 and October 3.
It was carried out amid Mr Pesutto's high-stakes defamation trial with ousted MP Moira Deeming and before internal noise of a looming leadership coup.
The Victorian coalition has not led Labor on TPP since June 2017, during the first-term of Daniel Andrews' premiership.
Labor is slipping in opinion polls under Premier Jacinta Allan. (Diego Fedele/AAP PHOTOS)
Under his successor Jacinta Allan, Labor enjoyed a comfortable 55 to 45 TPP lead over the coalition four months ago, but its primary vote has since slipped from 35 per cent to 30 per cent.
The coalition's primary vote has lifted from 38 per cent to 40 per cent over the same span.
RedBridge director Kos Samaras said Labor's primary vote among Victorians experiencing severe economic stress was "catastrophically low" at 24 per cent.
Failing to address the cohort would "likely result in significant electoral losses in Melbourne's southeastern and western suburbs, potentially mirroring the substantial swings against Labor in the 2022 Victorian state election".
"In that election, many previously safe Labor seats experienced primary vote swings exceeding 15 per cent," Mr Samaras posted on X.
"In 2026, many of these Labor MPs no longer have fat margins to protect them from what could be an even larger backlash."
Our latest Victorian State polling report. — Kos Samaras (@KosSamaras) Labor's primary vote now down to 30%. Victorian Labor's primary vote amongst Victorians experiencing severe economic stress is at catastrophically low levels. 24%. Failure to address this will likely result in significant… pic.twitter.com/YyL9NRyr0WOctober 9, 2024
The Labor strategy since 2014 to disregard its base was no longer tenable and political repercussions of its approach were now unavoidable for the next election, Mr Samaras said.
"The number of seats that will need defending may comprise half the Labor caucus," he said.
The next Victorian state election is slated to be held in November 2026.
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