BOM head of long-range of forecasting Andrew Watkins said the weather cycle had been weakening for several weeks, but there was a 50 per cent chance of another event forming this year.
The status of the 2021-2022 event has been changed to La Niña Watch.
“A La Niña Watch does not change the outlook of above average rainfall for most of Australia in the coming months,” Dr Watkins said.
“The bureau’s long-range outlook remains wetter than average, consistent with model outlooks from other global forecast centres.”
Dr Watkins said the high rain forecast for the winter months was based on a range of climate drivers, including a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole and warm Australian waters.
“Sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than average for much of the Australian coastline, particularly to the north and west,” he said.
“This pattern is likely to increase the chance of above average winter-spring rainfall for Australia.”
Climate Council director of research Simon Bradshaw said should a third consecutive La Niña occur, it could result in even more flooding.
“La Niña events can be damaging and costly for many Australian communities due to the greater risk of flooding,” he said.
“A third consecutive La Niña could mean continued above average rainfall on an already saturated east coast.”
Dr Bradshaw said preparations should be made for communities at risk of extreme flooding.
“This is a chance to learn from failures of the past,” he said.
“There are 80 recommendations of the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements that need immediate attention.”
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