GVL Data | Looking at last year’s outcome, what’s the key to winning the prelim in 2024?

That, and churning out six months’ worth of number-crunching isn’t exactly easy without flogging a dead horse, so to speak.

This weekend, Shepparton will suit up against Rochester in the preliminary final for the right to try and deny Echuca a historic three-peat.

So how about we fire up the time machine and jump back 369 days to when Kyabram met Euroa in last season’s penultimate bout — and in doing so, maybe crack the code as to what’ll split the Bears and Tigers on Sunday?

Glancing over the result first, Kyabram prevailed 13.12 (90) to 10.17 (77).

That immediately alludes to the Bombers’ superior goal-kicking accuracy of 52 per cent to Euroa’s 37 per cent being a key factor with two less scoring shots on the board.

And while it’s clear the Magpies had a slightly wonkier day in front of the sticks, Kyabram executed another crucial aspect of the game much better than its Strathbogie Shire opposites.

The facet in question is punishing the turnovers.

Euroa coughed up the ball four less times than Kyabram (75-79) but rued conceding possession as the Bombers capitalised by converting the Magpies’ mistakes into their secondary scoring source.

Paul Newman’s troops drilled 9.6 (60) in comparison to 6.7 (43) by Scott Rowan’s men from turnovers, and this is something Shepparton should certainly take heed of.

Sure, you play each game on its merits.

But when factoring in Rochester leads the league for total turnovers (1456) and sits third for average turnovers (72.8), a pattern begins to emerge about the Tigers.

In Rochester’s semi-final against Echuca, Ash Watson’s side was +14 in lost possessions and the Murray Bombers pounced on this, scoring 72 per cent of their points from the source.

That said, if the Bears do have the ball, they won’t have ample time with it if Rochester is at its hungry best.

The Tigers sit first in the GVL for per-game pressure acts (61.9) and tackles (67.2) and lead the majority of pressure statistics, though Shepparton trumps Rochester in average forward 50 tackles 13-11.6.

It ties back to last year’s prelim where Kyabram laid a third more challenges inside the offensive arc than Euroa despite losing the overall pressure battle.

Additionally, Shepparton lands second for scoring efficiency with 52.

Rochester, on the other hand, is down in equal seventh with 48.

For those who aren’t aware, the metric is calculated on offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency, and while that may not still make sense, here’s a quick explainer courtesy of Champion Data.

Offensive efficiency: a measure of how many points a team scores per 50 minutes of time in forward half.

Defensive efficiency: a measure of how effective a player is at restricting their direct opponent’s output across a match, with a defensive rating of +50 per cent equates to restricting an opponent to half their usual output.

And so, based on previous data and season statistics, all signs seem to point to Shepparton progressing to the grand final.

Put simply, the Bears turn the ball over less, have better pressure up the park and score with more overall efficiency than the Tigers.

But will this result in a win on Sunday? Stay tuned to find out.