Australia's export earnings to fall, gold hits new high

Reports for the December 2024 quarter on resources and energy, and major energy projects were released by the federal government on Friday.

It shows revenue will plunge to $372 billion in the 2024/2025 financial year from $415 billion in the previous year.

Export earnings are then projected to decline again in the following financial year.

Lower iron ore prices will see earnings fall by an estimated $30 billion in 2024/2025. (Kim Christian/AAP PHOTOS)

One of the reports warns of widening conflict in the Middle East, extended contraction in China property sector, and an increase in protectionist policies all posed risks to revenue.

Iron ore remains Australia's largest earner, but lower prices will see earnings fall by an estimated $30 billion to $108 billion in 2024/2025, and then to $96 billion in 2025/2026.

Lower LNG prices will mean a drop by $4.6 billion to $64 billion in 2024/2025, before falling further to $60 billion in 2025/2026.

But surging gold prices will mean the value of exports will rise to more than $34 billion, and is expected to overtake thermal coal as the fourth highest export earner.

"The gold price continues to rise due to geopolitical tensions as investors seek safe havens," the report reads.

"An escalation of conflict in the Middle East could impact the global supply of oil, gas and LNG, raising energy prices."

A spike in alumina prices, driven by reduced supply from the African country Guinea and Australia, will see exports jump in value by $3 billion in the current financial year.

Major resource and energy projects in Australia rose to 455 by October, up from 421 in 2023.

A total of 21 major projects worth $10 billion were completed this year, with oil and gas making up the largest share of committed projects.  

Despite challenging market conditions, critical minerals projects continued to be an important part of the major projects list, with tens of billions of proposed investment for later-stage works.