The NSW Liberals are defending three heartland seats in northern Sydney on Saturday, with two expected to be a cakewalk.
But all eyes will be on Pittwater, where a Climate 200-backed former adviser to federal independent MPs Zali Steggall and Sophie Scamps is well within striking distance of snaring the northern beaches seat.
Jacqui Scruby came within a whisker of victory at the March 2023 and has had her chances boosted with the absence of Labor and Greens candidates this time around.
While rising living costs have played a role in the campaign, much of it has whittled down to who is from the area known as the insular peninsula.
Both sides have highlighted their candidate as a local.
But Liberal opponent Georgia Ryburn's residence a few kilometres outside the electorate has left her resorting to social media ads and robocalls to underline her family's multi-generational Pittwater links.
"Whether you've lived on the Beaches for five years, or 50 years, if you call our community home, you're a local," she says in one ad running on Instagram and Facebook.
"And I'll fight for every one of you."
Opposition Leader Mark Speakman weighed in on Friday to highlight Ms Ryburn had been school captain of "the local Anglican school" - albeit leaving out the northern beaches school was also well south of Pittwater.
"Liberals are in serious trouble in Pittwater," election analyst Ben Raue, of the Tally Room, told AAP.
"Scruby came close to winning in 2023 and things haven't gone well for the Libs recently."
Mark Speakman slammed the teals as he made a pitch for the Liberals in Pittwater. (Dan Himbrechts/AAP PHOTOS)
In an effort to turn the tide, Mr Speakman and several other sitting Liberals has been vigorously doorknocking and campaigning in the neck-and-neck race, trumpeting how voters would get Ms Ryburn and a team of MPs on their side.
"The teals haven't achieved anything in Canberra, they won't achieve anything in Macquarie Street," the Liberal leader told 2GB.
"If you want to tackle the Minns Labor government ... you need the Liberals there."
One Climate 200-backed independent MP shot back hours after his bill to reduce LGBTQI discrimination passed into law.
"Whether it is passing laws ... or getting infrastructure funded, we're able to work with the government to deliver results, not only for our communities, but the entire state," bill author and independent MP Alex Greenwich said on Friday.
The by-election, triggered by criminal charges being laid against the sitting MP, is being held alongside those in Epping and Hornsby.
Those were sparked by the resignations of former premier Dominic Perrottet and former treasurer Matt Kean.
Liberal candidates Monica Tudehope and James Wallace are expected to triumph easily in the Labor-less races.
Like Ms Ryburn, the duo have links to the area but do not reside there, leaving them unable to vote for themself.
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