The opposition leads 51 to 49 on a two-party preferred basis in the latest Newspoll, published in The Australian on Monday.
It's the first time the coalition has been ahead in the polls since the 2022 election.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton's approval rating remains below Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)
But months out from voting day, Labor is in better shape than many other first-term governments, polling analyst Kevin Bonham says.
"Governments usually lose polls faster than this. Kevin Rudd and Anthony Albanese are the two longest lasting governments (before they lost a Newspoll)," he told AAP.
"The poll is very similar to some of the previous Newspolls, and it's a probably a matter of rounding that the government has slipped to the point where they lost this one.
"While the two-party preferred result has changed, primary votes remain the same, with the coalition on 38 per cent and Labor on 31 per cent.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese remains the preferred prime minister over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, ahead 45 to 37 per cent.
Mr Albanese's personal approval rating fell three points to 40 per cent, while 54 per cent disapprove.
The opposition leader's approval increased by one point to 38 per cent, while his disapproval levels stayed at 52 per cent.
Note the Coalition would probably not win an election on this poll, but Labor could end up anywhere from, say, a slight minority through to actually losing, the median being deeply in minority with neither side near 76. — Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) #NewspollOctober 13, 2024
Despite the prime minister's personal net-approval ratings being the same as the opposition leader's, Mr Bonham said it should not represent a cause for concern.
"The rating is pretty ordinary, but not terrible. Prime ministers have won from a lot worse ratings than this," he said.
"It's not unusual for a government to poll differently during their term, and there hasn't been much change all year.
"It seems to have dipped a little in recent months, but there's been little change all year, and there's still a lot of time go."
A federal election must be held by May 17 at the latest for a standard poll, where all of the House of Representatives and half the Senate is up for grabs.
Minister Murray Watt says all governments are finding it difficult at the moment. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)
Barring the prime minister calling an early double-dissolution election, a Saturday in May is looming as the most likely option.
The 2025 schedule for federal parliament shows the federal budget being brought forward from its traditional May slot to March 25.
Federal budgets were held early in the past two election years of 2019 and 2022, ahead of a federal poll being called shortly afterwards.
With a minimum of 33 days needed between an election being called and the poll taking place, the earliest one could take place is the first Saturday in May.
The prime minister has previously indicated he would want to serve as close to a full term as possible.
Workplace Minister Murray Watt said the government still had work to do before election day.
"We need to work that little bit harder to explain what we are doing to assist people with those cost-of-living pressures and the risk that we face if Peter Dutton and the coalition win the next election," he told ABC Radio on Monday.
Barnaby Joyce says the prime minister has lost his connection with the people. (Lukas Coch/AAP PHOTOS)
But Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce says the poll result was indicative of growing negative sentiment about the government.
"The biggest issue is trend. The trend's been down all the way along," he told Seven's Sunrise program.
"Mr Albanese is giving this a red-hot go to be a one-term government. He really has just lost his connection with the people."
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