The Priestly camp expected to poll well in the major population centre of Shepparton, but the results across the booths were not uniform.
St Brendan’s in central Shepparton was won easily by Mr Priestly with 61 per cent to Sam Birrell’s 39 per cent after preferences.
If that result had been repeated across Shepparton, the result would have been a lot closer.
The independent also won Shepparton North 57 per cent to Mr Birrell’s 43 per cent and Shepparton South 53 per cent to 47 per cent, but Kialla was evenly split and the Nationals narrowly won Shepparton East.
While his performance on polling day was better, the margin and number of votes cast were not enough for Mr Priestly to cut into the margin.
Pre-poll turned out to be critical in Shepparton, with more than 15,000 votes cast at two centres not reflecting the same support for the independent as on polling day.
At the main pre-polling station, 11,000 votes were cast and Mr Priestly captured 33 per cent of the primary vote to Mr Birrell’s 28 per cent and Liberal candidate Steve Brooks’ 15 per cent.
Preferences favoured Mr Birrell and while Mr Priestly won 50.6 per cent to 49.4 per cent, the narrow margin wasn’t enough to make a difference overall.
It was a similar story at the second pre-poll venue where 5853 votes were cast, with Mr Priestly receiving 35.5 per cent of the primary vote, but after preferences led by a similarly slender 51 per cent to Mr Birrell’s 49 per cent.
One of the big questions before the count was whether the independent could make an impact outside Shepparton where he was less well known and had to build a profile during a long campaign.
The picture was bleak.
Cobram is the home of Mr Brooks, who had the highest primary vote, with Mr Priestly dipping to 12 per cent. Mr Birrell had 20 per cent of the votes.
After preferences, the Nationals carried it 62 per cent to Mr Priestly’s 38 per cent.
Pre-poll in Cobram was even stronger for the Nationals at 65 per cent to Mr Priestly’s 35 per cent.
In Echuca, where the vast majority of votes were pre-poll, Mr Priestly’s primary vote dropped to 20 per cent and the Nationals’ margin after preferences was 59 per cent to 41 per cent.
It was a narrower win for the Nationals in all three booths on election day.
The independent’s worst result came in Seymour, where he finished fourth behind Mr Birrell, Mr Brooks and ALP candidate Bill Lodwick in the primary vote.
Even with a higher pool of Labor preferences, Mr Birrell still won 54 per cent of the vote.
Yarrawonga was a thumping win for Mr Birrell, who claimed 59 per cent of the votes on polling day and 64 per cent of pre-poll votes.
In Kyabram, Mr Birrell won 56 per cent of votes, but in the surrounding district of Ky Valley and Lancaster, the vote reached 60 per cent.
