No Shepparton or Mooroopna houses or businesses are predicted to have any floodwater inside them.
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Shepparton Incident Control Centre incident controller Ray Jasper said on Tuesday, January 9, he was “confident” there would be no water inside houses when the Goulburn River peaks on Wednesday.
“This is based on the worst-case scenario of an 11m (peak of the Goulburn River),” he said.
However, Mr Jasper said that some yards and streets would be flooded, especially in newer areas where houses had been specifically built higher.
The Broken River and Seven and Castle Creeks will also not flood any homes.
They will remain below minor flood level for now, with the water travelling down those waterways. However, levels are expected to move to a moderate level because of back-flow from the Goulburn River into the Broken River and Seven Creeks.
The Goulburn River peak is predicted to hit Shepparton between 3pm and 8pm on Wednesday.
Mr Jasper, however, warned that some streets and roads would flood, including Watt Rd and Raftery Rd in Kialla.
The causeway connecting Shepparton and Mooroopna, however, is expected to remain open.
Mr Jasper said bushland beside the causeway would be flooded all the way from Shepparton to Mooroopna.
Other residential streets are also expected to flood, but Mr Jasper said the peak was only expected to last for four or five hours.
This means some houses would be cut off on Wednesday afternoon or night, but water levels would drop noticeably on Thursday.
In the meantime, the sandbag station will open at the Shepparton Showgrounds from 8am to 8pm on Wednesday for anyone wanting sandbags.
For those wanting to see where the water will go at different river levels, they can enter their home address on the Goulburn Broken community Flood Intelligence Portal at https://my.floodreport.com.au/gbcma/
For flood information for the City of Greater Shepparton, which includes local flood guides and a municipal flood emergency plan, visit https://www.ses.vic.gov.au/plan-and-stay-safe/flood-guides/greater-shepparton-city-council
Further upstream on the Goulburn River, a lower peak of 10.6m is expected in Murchison mid-morning Wednesday.
Mr Jasper said no houses were predicted to have floodwater through them in Murchison.
He said five houses were door-knocked Tuesday morning to warn that their properties would be isolated — but even then he said authorities were not predicting any inundation of them.
The owners of River Haven Caravan Park — which has not reopened since the 2022 flood — moved some of its assets from lower in the park to higher ground on Tuesday.
He said people should be “vigilant, but not alarmed” by the floodwater.
Earlier in the flood emergency, parts of Seymour were evacuated on Monday before the river peaked at 6.8m — about 20cm below what had been earlier predicted.
In Rochester, the Campaspe River peaked at 114.62m AHD about 11am on Tuesday morning.
It fell below major flood level Tuesday afternoon, and at 5pm Tuesday was at moderate flood level and falling.
It may fall below the minor flood level on Wednesday morning.
In Avenel, Hughes Creek came up quickly on Monday, but Mr Jasper said no houses were flooded.
In the meantime, Goulburn-Murray Water has provided an update on the ongoing flooding in the Goulburn catchment and whether the Loch Garry regulator would be operated.
At its peak on Monday, the Goulburn River at Seymour witnessed a daily flow of about 66,000 megalitres.
During this period, Lake Eildon’s releases were maintained at a rate of 1000Ml per day.
As of 10am on Tuesday, these releases had increased to 3000Ml per day, where they still remained at 5.30pm.
This remains well below the minor flood level, which is set at 12,700Ml per day.
Further adjustments may be required in the days ahead, although these releases will consistently be maintained below the minor flood level, according to Goulburn-Murray Water.
G-MW incident controller Warren Blyth said after the October 2022 floods, a revised set of operating rules was approved by the G-MW board, in August 2023.
“The revised operating rules will ensure the regulator can be operated differently depending on the nature of the flood, enabling the rules to be effectively applied in different scenarios,” Mr Blyth said.
“The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting the Goulburn River at Shepparton is likely to reach 10.36m on Wednesday, January 10 or Thursday, January 11.
“The river heights the bureau is anticipating would trigger the scenario in the operating rules for when river levels do not exceed 11m.
“This scenario involves the regulator being operated 24 hours after the Goulburn River reaches 10.36m at Shepparton.”
He said G-MW encouraged people in the Loch Garry district to familiarise themselves with the revised operating rules by visiting the G-MW website: https://bitly.ws/39bAk
Mr Blyth also said Loch Garry Flood Protection customers would be notified by SMS if the regulator was to be operated.