It's time for every district cricketer's favourite part of playing the game — let's do some maths.
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The Cricket Shepparton Haisman Shield has but one afternoon of regular season play remaining, yet the implications remain numerous.
A juicy fortnight of fixtures has third-placed Nagambie at a firm disadvantage against sixth-placed Katandra, while fourth and fifth are embroiled in a tight affair as Numurkah defends 160 against Central Park-St Brendan's.
Waaia has secured another minor premiership, while Mooroopna's dominant display on day one at Northerners' expense means the Cats have second place locked in with time to spare.
While those two teams can breathe easy with a double chance now assured, the five clubs below have plenty to think about beyond their fortunes — not Shepparton United anymore, though.
When eighth-placed United came to Waaia Recreation Reserve last Saturday, its finals prospects, while bleak, were mathematically alive.
A barnstorming 80-over Bombers batting display emphatically cut any bare threads that made knockout cricket a possibility at Princess Park.
United would need to surge far past Waaia's 325 and roll the Bombers in next to no time for about as many runs, which one can safely discount.
Likely dead rubber aside, three games still carry the utmost significance, so it's time to unpack five teams' paths and ceilings.
3rd: Nagambie (52pts)
NAGAMBIE IMPLICATIONS
With a win: Third place, home elimination final secured
With a loss: Fifth if Kyabram fails to claim an outright win, otherwise sixth
With 52 points, Nagambie enters best-placed among the chasing pack, flying directly in the face of a run home that looked the envy of no-one, but knockout cricket is locked in.
That said, the Lakers are in unquestionable strife midway through their away meeting with Katandra, having been skittled for 124 in a little more than half their overs.
Katandra sits at 0-50 entering the home stretch and one would imagine a near-miracle is required to take anything out of the game.
Mark Nolan's men will be among those for whom results around the grounds will likely decide their fates unless a masterful bowling display unearths itself on Saturday.
A likely defeat would mean dropping third to the winner of Numurkah and Central Park's game while also falling behind Katandra.
In a worst-case scenario, Nagambie wouldn't be safe from a charging Kyabram either.
4th: Numurkah (51pts)
NUMURKAH IMPLICATIONS
With a win: Third if Katandra wins, otherwise fourth
With a loss: Fifth if Nagambie wins and Kyabram fails to outright; sixth if Katandra wins and Kyabram fails to outright; out if Katandra wins and Kyabram outrights
Numurkah has endured a streaky season, to say the least.
An unbeaten opening month soon gave way to three straight setbacks before Tim Arnel's side resurrected a sure-fire finals charge with four wins on the bounce heading into the Tigers game.
There's no denying that 160 is a below-par total after dealing in the high 190s on the same pitch one game prior, though, and uncertainty looms as a result.
Given Nagambie's difficulties, if the Blues can recover against an often-struggling Central Park batting line-up, third is almost assured.
However, a failure to keep the Tigers at bay could spell trouble for the resurgent Blues.
Numurkah would forfeit fourth, with Katandra highly likely to knock it down another peg, so Arnel may want updates from Kyabram in hoping Karramomus can avoid losing 16 wickets.
5th: Central Park-St Brendan’s (49pts)
CENTRAL PARK-ST BRENDAN’S IMPLICATIONS
With a win: Third if Katandra wins, otherwise fourth
With a loss: Fifth if Nagambie wins and Kyabram fails to outright; sixth if Katandra wins and Kyabram fails to outright; out if Katandra wins and Kyabram outrights
Tigers players and faithful would have good reason to approach Saturday with optimism.
Tyler Larkin's side will surely brim with confidence as it heads to try and complete the good work of its bowlers at Numurkah Showgrounds, with a gettable victory target of 161.
Despite the bats misfiring on occasion in season 2023-24, Central Park holds a modest ascendancy in this tie and the rewards could be plentiful.
A victory moves the Tigers to 55, where third is a virtual certainty unless some magic comes from Nagambie's bowlers.
There is a sense that Central Park has greater control over its own fate than even the two sides above at this stage, as its destiny essentially boils down to top-order composure in the face of a supposedly spin-friendly wicket.
The implications for the two sides that will pick up business at Numurkah are identical, after all.
However, if the Tigers' order is lacking, they will be one of many sides potentially cheering on Karramomus to attain any form of survival.
Of course, one intriguing sub-plot remains with the Blues and Tigers' T20 final two nights beforehand, which will have given the CPStB batters a chance to fire the first salvo ahead of Saturday.
6th: Katandra (48pts)
KATANDRA IMPLICATIONS
With a win: Fourth if Kyabram fails to outright, otherwise fifth
With a loss: Sixth if Kyabram fails to outright, otherwise out
An unbeaten 50-run partnership to kick off the chase of 125 will never hurt your confidence, will it?
The reigning premier has stepped up when its spot in the knockout stages was in greater jeopardy than any other.
Jedd Wright curtailed Nagambie sensationally on day one, collecting four scalps and credit for a run out in a tremendous show of fight to keep the premiership defence steady after dropping two straight games.
With an identical nett run rate to Kyabram and a six-point gap, a catastrophic failure to complete a straightforward run chase would spell instant doom.
Katandra is the only team inside the six that could lose its spot without Kyabram claiming an outright ... thank goodness for the Big Bens leading off in style, right?
7th: Kyabram (42pts)
KYABRAM IMPLICATIONS
With an outright win: Fifth place locked in
With a six-point win: Sixth if Nagambie wins, otherwise out in any other scenario
It's never easy looking in from the outside at such a late stage, but given the Redbacks' early form, the ability to stay in the fight this long was perhaps a minor victory in its own right.
By round five, the Redbacks sat at 1-4 and had lost to three finals-bound teams, rebounding off five straight wins before a demoralising defeat to Waaia last time out.
The premise is fairly simple for Jackson McLay's charges: 16 wickets will be the minimum requirement on Saturday if a finals berth is any genuine chance.
With Nagambie extremely unlikely to lend a helping hand, only a full bag of 10 points will do — and many variables go into determining where the Redbacks would land from there.
The current Bloods partnership between Zac Groombridge and Nathan Jones has lasted more than 12 overs, which won't fly if Kyabram gets the second crack at Karramomus it needs later in the day and has to break that duo again.
Sports Journalist