Don't fear, loyal readers; Outside The Box is back — better than ever — and here to guide you through the AFL grand final from a wagering perspective.
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Once again, the sport crew has generously rattled the tin and given me $200 to bet on the big game, and it's my job to take those funds and turn it into a large amount of coin.
Look — last year didn't go too well. We wagered $217 and got about $170 back, but we nailed a big bet on Richmond and Dustin Martin to win the Norm Smith and plan for far more profit this year.
As is OTB tradition for big games, we like to either win or lose money every time someone kicks or handballs the ball — and of course, as per tradition, we've got a full breakdown of the grand final sprint.
Settle in people because this is what we do it for. We've taken our odds from the good folk at Sportsbet.
MATCH
Melbourne 1-39 ($2.10)
I'm more than happy to take the Demons here in what will be my biggest bet of the game.
The Dees are, in my eyes, the superior side in every department with the possible exception of the midfield where they break even at worst.
We try and focus on the numbers more than gut-feel, but there's a “team of destiny” feel about Melbourne, while it's surely laid to rest the idea it will choke with an ultra-professional finals campaign.
When the sides met in round 19, the Dogs took a 20-point win, but I feel it is far too simplistic to suggest this shows they’re the better team.
The Bulldogs won the free kick count 25-11, but more importantly recorded 62 clangers compared to a whopping 88 from the Demons, who went at 60 per cent disposal efficiency — I think the Dees had a bad night, and were still just four points down midway through the final term.
Since then, too, Melbourne has simply not put a foot wrong, winning six on the trot by an average margin of 44.8 including the hilarious 83-point humbling of Geelong in the preliminary final.
Since that round 19 match, the Dees have upped their efficiency to a 70.3 average, and I feel their forward line will produce a winning score.
Realistically, the Bulldogs, until it all clicked against Port Adelaide, have been just hanging on by a thread — they lost three straight to close the regular season, needed about 14 goals from free kicks to beat Essendon and fell over the line against Brisbane.
I think they dig in and keep it close, but ultimately fall short.
PROPS
Western Bulldogs lead at quarter-time ($2.10)
We mentioned relying on the numbers more than instinct, so we've got to back them in when it comes to the Dogs’ impressive first quarter record.
They've gone 20-4-1 in first quarters this season including winning seven of their past eight, while Melbourne's record is 15-9 — not too shabby, but not in the Dogs’ league.
Narrative-wise, the Dogs simply have to come out firing if they want to win this match and will throw everything into establishing an early lead.
While the Demons’ class will show throughout the contest, expect the Dogs to lead at quarter-time.
First scoring play — Western Bulldogs behind ($3.75)
Now we're getting niche.
The Dogs have the first scoring play in 76 per cent of their matches this season — 40 per cent goals and 36 per cent behinds — and we're going to back them in to score first on Saturday night.
Melbourne concedes behinds (21 per cent) more than goals (13 per cent) as their first score more often, which is perhaps a testament to it's defence's ability to push teams wide or scramble through a behind.
First goal-scorers
Much like the Brownlow Medal, the grand final's first goal-scorer is a midfielder's award.
We add Dion Prestia last year to a recent list that included Travis Varcoe, Rory Sloane, Luke Parker, Luke Shuey and Josh Kennedy since 2014, with Jeremy Cameron the only key forward to get the first snag since then.
From a Melbourne perspective, that immediately makes you look away from favourites Ben Brown ($10) and Bailey Fritsch ($10) and more towards your Christian Petracca ($15) types.
I also have my eye on Alex Neal-Bullen ($26); he's the right height at 183cm, and has kicked the first goal of the match twice this season.
But on the Bulldog side of things, we have my best value bet of the match — Tom Liberatore ($36) to kick the first goal.
Win or lose, the price is ridiculous; he's kicked the first goal of the match three times this season and the Dogs’ first goal on another occasion, and clearly fits the mould of a scrappy midfielder pushing forward to kick the first goal of the grand final.
I'll also take Marcus Bontempelli ($17) for every reason you can think of — it just makes sense.
Norm Smith Medal
I won't be going crazy on Norm bets this year; I think Melbourne wins the match, and that you can flip a coin for the medal between Petracca ($6) and Clayton Oliver ($7) at poisonous odds.
There are worse bets than a kick-first, quarter back-type like Christian Salem ($23) who would need to drive his side forward at will and kick goals, like Jason Johanissen did in 2016.
I also see a path to victory for Kysaiah Pickett ($51), much like Cyril Rioli's 2015 triumph — for those who don't remember, Rioli didn't do an awful lot that day.
A similiarly-magical small forward, Pickett is capable of kicking three flashy, influential goals and swinging the game for the Dees.
If the Dogs win, I don't really see a way Bontempelli ($8) doesn't win it, but I'll take a small piece of Bailey Smith ($15) for some more interest.
National Anthem
Length of national anthem over 54.5 seconds
If you're unfamiliar with the ultimate experience of betting on how long the national anthem will go for, welcome to the world.
This year we've got a soprano (some sort of opera unit) called Amy Manford, and the line is over or under 54.5 seconds for the anthem.
We've done the tape study on this one; Ranford once sang the anthem in front of the royal family (hello if you're reading guys) and clocked in a 55.6, but it certainly couldn't have been any faster and you could hear her wanting to slow things down — she didn't even do the really slow ending thing which is a staple of grand final anthems.
The over 54.5 is one of my best bets on the card and I wish Sportsbet's limit was more than $25.
Grand Final Sprint
And for my grand finale, the betting preview you only get here in Outside The Box — the Grand Final Sprint.
Jack Petruccelle ($1.57) is an odds-on favourite and I’m ready to say this — it is Petruccelle’s sprint to lose.
He is a powerful athlete with elite speed, having hit 35.7km/h this season and posted a 20m sprint time of 2.87 seconds in his draft combine, the fastest of that year.
He's been backed from $1.80 into $1.57, but if you think I'm about to take $1.57 odds on the sprint, you're crazy — I think I've found one at odds.
We're putting a line through Liam Ryan ($6.50) and Liam Henry ($5.50) who look a little light for this grade and circling in on Docker Ethan Hughes ($9).
Hughes, who I'm not ashamed to say I'd never heard of before this week, has an AFL top speed of 35.6km/h — comparable with Petruccelle and at 188cm and 88kg, seems to have the powerful frame of a sprinter.
Of other competitors, Josh Rotham ($13) is the only one that could challenge with a 2.92 20m sprint at his draft combine, while Luke Ryan's 33.5km/h top speed is decent, but not in this race.
Put a line through Tom Cole, who had “speed” listed as a weakness on his draft profile, while Andrew Brayshaw ran fourth in the 2019 sprint, jumping well, but failing to stick with the big guns when they kicked.
At $9, I'm willing to find out if Hughes can get it done in the big time.
OFFICIAL BETS
Melbourne 1-39 — $75 at 2.10.
Western Bulldogs lead at quarter-time — $25 @ 2.10.
First scoring play Western Bulldogs behind — $20 @ 3.75.
First goal-scorers — Petracca $5 at 15, Neal-Bullen $5 at 26, Bontempelli $5 at 17, Liberatore $5 at 36.
Norm Smith Medal — Salem $5 at 23, Pickett $5 at 51, Bontempelli $10 at 8, Smith $5 at 15.
Length of national anthem over 54.5 seconds — $25 @ 1.91.
Grand Final Sprint — Ethan Hughes $10 at 9.
Senior journalist